December 16, 2008

How Accurate Were the Pre-Season Magazines Picking the MWC?

Every Summer, in anticipation for the upcoming College Football season, local Barnes & Noble's and grocery stores get bombarded with College Football preview magazines.

There was a lot of pre-season buzz surrounding BYU this season, and that showed in the predictions for the Mountain West Conference picks.

Here is a review of how the four major publications fared in picking the Mountain West standings.  I just did a basic point system.  For example, if Team A finished the actual season in 7th place, and they were picked third in the Pre-Season, that would be 3 points (spots).  The lower the score the more accurate the predictions.  And in the case of a tie on scores, the magazine that picked the most accurate spots, gets the edge.  Now you can get an idea of what magazine is the best for future years, when it comes to accuracy in predicting the league.

Final 2008 MWC Standings

#1 Utah
#2 TCU
#3 BYU
#4 Air Force
#5 Colorado State
#6 UNLV
#7 New Mexico
#8 Wyoming
#9 San Diego State

----

Lindy's Predictions

1. BYU (2 spots off final spot)
2. Utah (1)
3. TCU (1)
4. New Mexico (3)
5. Wyoming (3)
6. Air Force (2)
7. San Diego State (2)
8. Colorado State (3)
9. UNLV (3)

Total: 20


Athlon Predictions

1. BYU (2)
2. Utah (1)
3. TCU (1)
4. New Mexico (3)
5. Wyoming (3)
6. Air Force (2)
7. Colorado State (2)
8. UNLV (2)
9. San Diego State (0)

Total: 16


The Sporting News Predictions

1. BYU (2)
2. TCU (0)
3. Utah (2)
4. Air Force (0)
5. New Mexico (2)
6. Wyoming (2)
7. Colorado State (2)
8. San Diego State (1)
9. UNLV (3)

Total:  14


Phil Steele's Predictions

1. Utah (0)
2. BYU (1)
3. TCU (1)
4. UNLV (2)
5. New Mexico (2)
6. Wyoming (2)
7. Air Force (3)
8. San Diego State (1)
9. Colorado State (4)

Total: 16

-- Note on Steele's predictions:  Steele usually picks two teams at a particular spot in his conference rankings.  In his magazine he has both New Mexico and Wyoming at #5.  He has Wyoming listed after so I put it the six spot to make it even with the other magazines.


So here's how the final magazine rankings go (if you can't figure it out on your own):

1. The Sporting News: 14 points
2. Phil Steele: 16 (Tie-breaker)
3. Athlon:  16
4. Lindy's:  20


There you go.  So next year wait around for The Sporting News that usually comes late in June to get your accurate Mountain West picks.  Out of the four mags, its definitely one of the better ones.  Phil Steele's is still the Taj Mahal for info though, with its two-page breakdowns.  Lindy's year-in and year-out is one of the more inaccurate magazines, but I buy it every year because its the first one to come out; usually the day after Memorial Day in late May.  Then Athlon is unique because they have magazines designed for certain conferences, which is really cool.  Gives a lot of teams a chance to pick up a Pre-Season magazine with a play from their favorite team on the cover.  This year BYU Quarterback Max Hall graced the cover of Athlon's Western cover.

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